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Mesoscale Discussion 429
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0429
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0514 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 99...

   VALID 272214Z - 272345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 99
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 99...AND MAY EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH.

   DISCUSSION...INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT HAVE FOSTERED
   A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION ALONG A DRYLINE EXTENDING E OF THE DFW METROPLEX TO NEAR
   WACO. THE PRIMARY SVR RISK WITH DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THE
   SHORT TERM WILL ACCOMPANY A SUPERCELL STORM CROSSING KAUFMAN
   COUNTY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING E. WITH AROUND 3000-3500 J/KG
   OF MLCAPE JUXTAPOSED WITH 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE SVR
   RISK WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED EWD. SOME TORNADO RISK MAY INCREASE
   AS THIS CELL ENCOUNTERS MORE BACKED SFC WINDS ACROSS THE ERN EXTENT
   OF THE WW. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   FARTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE IN A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...WITH A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK. SUCH RISK SHOULD BE VERY
   ISOLATED PROVIDED STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT RELEGATED TO
   HIGHER LATITUDES ACROSS THE WW AREA. WHILE THE ISSUANCE OF AN
   ADDITIONAL WW S OF SVR TSTM WATCH 99 WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
   NEEDED...SWD EXTENSION OF THE WW ON A LOCAL BASIS MAY BE CONSIDERED.

   ..COHEN.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33469630 33659586 33609542 32689556 31809572 31129622
               31039704 32139674 33469630 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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