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Mesoscale Discussion 430 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 272310Z - 280045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS...SOME WITH A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E/NE ACROSS SW MO. A
NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
DISCUSSION...A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS SW MO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ONGOING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES NEAR THE MO/KS STATE LINE. THE AXIS OF GREATEST TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA SEWD TO
JUST EAST OF SPRINGFIELD MO. HERE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. THE 88-D VAD
WIND PROFILE FROM KSFG SHOWED BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A FAVORABLE
CYCLONICALLY CURVED HODOGRAPH WITH O-1 KM SRH APPROACHING 400 M2/S2.
FURTHER E TOWARD CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL MO THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
NOT BE ZERO BUT WILL DECLINE DUE AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LEAD TO A
COOLER AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTION
MAY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE AS IT MOVES INTO THIS REGION.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/27/2014
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
LAT...LON 38769505 39149510 39219492 39239456 38869341 38389251
37889196 37049183 36519169 36449230 36449311 36489507
38769505
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