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Mesoscale Discussion 431
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0611 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF AR...ERN OK...NRN LA...NERN TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 100...97...

   VALID 272311Z - 280015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 100...97...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCHES 97 AND
   100. THE GREATEST SHORT-TERM TORNADO THREAT EXISTS ACROSS W-CNTRL
   AR...WHERE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN A ZONE
   OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD WILL CONTINUE TO
   MATURE AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STEERS THIS ACTIVITY NEWD...WHILE
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHIFTS E FROM SERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   INTERACT WITH A NWD-RETREATING WARM FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY ARCING
   FROM E OF FSM TO S OF HOT AND S OF LIT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE DRIVEN NWD IN RESPONSE TO 2-HRLY PRESSURE FALLS OF 2.0-3.5 MB TO
   ITS NORTH. NEAR THE FRONT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE
   LITTLE ROCK VWP SUPPORTING 0-1-KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2 WILL FOCUS
   THE GREATEST SHORT-TERM RISK FOR TORNADOES -- SOME POSSIBLY
   SIGNIFICANT -- ACROSS W-CNTRL AR. WHILE STORMS CROSSING THE WARM
   FRONT WILL HAVE A TENDENCY OF INGESTING MORE STABLE INFLOW...THE
   GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE FRONT ALLOW THIS RISK TO EXTEND NE WITH TIME.
   ALSO...A LONE SUPERCELL STORM CROSSING VAN ZANDT COUNTY TX WILL
   CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILE FOR TORNADOES IN NERN TX.

   ..COHEN.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32599523 34129533 35389522 36429458 36329228 34769099
               32989200 32399385 32599523 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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