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Mesoscale Discussion 433
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0628 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 272328Z - 280100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL RISK WILL EXIST THIS
   EVENING...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...DIURNAL HEATING ON THE DRY/HOT SIDE OF A WAVY DRYLINE
   EXTENDING N/S ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTENING AND ASCENT OVERSPREAD
   THE AREA. WITH THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE AROUND 3500-4500 J/KG AMIDST 45-65 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL/WIND MAY OCCUR
   AS CONVECTION SPREADS EWD TOWARD SERN TX. HOWEVER...WITH A MID-LEVEL
   DRY SLOT EVENTUALLY IMPINGING ON THE REGION AND COMMENCEMENT OF
   NOCTURNAL COOLING...SUCH RISK IS NOT FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED FOR
   ANY SUBSTANTIAL DURATION AND SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29929782 30969728 31169659 30749610 30009621 29499696
               29569764 29929782 

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