|
Mesoscale Discussion 436 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AR...WRN TN...SERN MO...FAR SRN
IL...FAR WRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 280029Z - 280200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION OVER CNTRL/NRN AR WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING ENEWD TO THE NE OF A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS CNTRL AR. HOWEVER...2-HRLY PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 2-3 MB NE OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE AN ISALLOBARIC WIND TO PROMOTE ITS NEWD
ADVANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E -- E.G. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S -- TO EXTEND NEWD TO THE
MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR SVR
HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. LONG/CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AMIDST STRONG
DEEP-SHEAR PER VWP DATA WILL SUGGEST A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST.
..COHEN/HART.. 04/28/2014
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36829097 37279014 36978891 35368883 34988971 35199093
36829097
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|