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Mesoscale Discussion 438 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0840 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102...
VALID 280140Z - 280245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 102 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 102. LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A LOW TORNADO THREAT THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND SPORADIC WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER ERN
KS/OK...WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG A
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE VICINITY
OF SPRINGFIELD MO. THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT INTO CENTRAL MO HAS
SEEN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EXPECT
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OCCUR FROM THE STORM
CLUSTER OVER HICKORY TO LAWRENCE COUNTIES. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW
WOULD STILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED MESOVORTICIES WITHIN ANY LINEAR
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME
AS THE STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT...LEAVING LITTLE FOCUS FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
FURTHERMORE...ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
ANY ONGOING OR FUTURE CONVECTION...WW 102 WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MO.
..LEITMAN.. 04/28/2014
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
LAT...LON 39459323 38599239 38349228 37849197 37459194 36909204
36639238 36449313 36449410 36479475 37089468 38299466
39179500 39509495 39599429 39459323
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