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Mesoscale Discussion 438
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0840 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102...

   VALID 280140Z - 280245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 102 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 102. LOW LEVEL WIND
   PROFILES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A LOW TORNADO THREAT THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND SPORADIC WINDS ARE
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER ERN
   KS/OK...WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG A
   WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE VICINITY
   OF SPRINGFIELD MO. THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT INTO CENTRAL MO HAS
   SEEN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EXPECT
   THE TORNADO THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OCCUR FROM THE STORM
   CLUSTER OVER HICKORY TO LAWRENCE COUNTIES. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW
   WOULD STILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED MESOVORTICIES WITHIN ANY LINEAR
   CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME
   AS THE STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER
   TONIGHT...LEAVING LITTLE FOCUS FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
   FURTHERMORE...ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT
   OVERNIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
   ANY ONGOING OR FUTURE CONVECTION...WW 102 WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MO.

   ..LEITMAN.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   39459323 38599239 38349228 37849197 37459194 36909204
               36639238 36449313 36449410 36479475 37089468 38299466
               39179500 39509495 39599429 39459323 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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