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Mesoscale Discussion 441
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0441
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1045 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX...WRN LA...FAR SWRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 280345Z - 280545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
   INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND FOR
   POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY THAT MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS
   OVERTAKING MOIST/STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR E OF A WAVY DRYLINE ANALYZED
   FROM ERN PARTS OF THE DFW METROPLEX TO WACO TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS ACCAS DEVELOPMENT OVER N-CNTRL TX FROM
   WHICH COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM
   NEAR/E OF THE DRYLINE. STRENGTHENING DEEP ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED
   MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY OFFSET NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TO ENCOURAGE
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH MLCAPE AROUND
   2500-4000 J/KG OVERLAPPING WITH 45-70 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR...INTENSE/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS MAY ENSUE. CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE INTO QLCS SEGMENTS
   PERHAPS SUPPORTING A GREATER DMGG WIND RISK. GIVEN 30-40 KT OF
   0-1-KM BULK SHEAR PER VWP DATA...A TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31299709 32469662 33719580 33029341 30909348 30209608
               31299709 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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