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Mesoscale Discussion 470
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
   WRN INTO N CNTRL GEORGIA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 113...

   VALID 290638Z - 290745Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 113 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 113 WITHIN
   THE NEXT HOUR.  SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE WITH
   ONGOING CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
   ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
   PANHANDLE.

   DISCUSSION...A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
   MAINTAINING STRENGTH THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  SOME UNCERTAINTY
   DOES EXIST CONCERNING JUST HOW MUCH LONGER THIS WILL CONTINUE...AS
   CONVECTION PROPAGATES EASTWARD AT 35-40 KT.  SUPPORTING MID/UPPER
   FORCING APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE
   REGION...TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW
   OFF THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
   SUBSTANTIALLY BY AROUND 10-12Z.  BUT FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE BASE OF
   BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN BROADLY DIFLUENT...AND
   PERHAPS AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT ACROSS EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS.
   AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION MAY AT LEAST MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA/THE WESTERN FLORIDA
   PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE
   ENVIRONMENT CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION IS
   CERTAINLY MOIST...AS FAR EAST AS ALBANY GA AND TALLAHASSEE
   FL...SUPPORTING CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  EVEN WITH WEAKENING OF
   850 FLOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 50+ KT 500 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN
   SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 04/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   34108509 34358366 33908299 32078405 30478537 30358728
               30778853 31478727 34108509 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2014
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