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Mesoscale Discussion 476
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0476
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN SC...NC...FAR SRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 291726Z - 291900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AS
   CELLS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE
   MORE DOMINANT ROTATING STORMS. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE MAY
   BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARPLY-DEFINED WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NC. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS
   ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN A HAIL THREAT. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
   SCNTRL NC AND NRN SC...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE
   ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THE WRF-HRRR AND 12Z NAM
   ARE INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON THE
   NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR AND JUST
   NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DUE TO CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND
   MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 TO 60 KT LOW TO
   MID-LEVEL JET...CELLS SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED AS CELLS INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
   HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2 EVIDENT ON THE RALEIGH NC WSR-88D VWP
   SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
   A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   STEEPEN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE
   CORES.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34437867 34358012 34678099 35448139 36438086 36768001
               36717883 36367793 35767764 34857789 34437867 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2014
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