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Mesoscale Discussion 477
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0477
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN / CNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291910Z - 292015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
   OVER WRN MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF CNTRL KY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
   AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NEWD...AN ISOLD STRONG
   TO LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.  SPATIAL COVERAGE
   AND MAGNITUDE OF THE FORECAST SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY NOT
   REQUIRE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER MIDDLE TN INTO
   CNTRL KY IS MODEST AS INDICATED BY DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
   AND PW AROUND 0.7 INCH...STEEP SURFACE-3 KM LAPSE RATES HAVE
   DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
   SKIES.  ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A 130 KT JET STREAK
   MOVING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DESPITE
   THE STRONG MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING STORM
   ORGANIZATION...WEAK BUOYANCY /GENERALLY AOB 500 J PER KG MLCAPE VIA
   MODIFIED 12Z BNA RAOB/ WILL TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH.  AS
   SUCH...AN ISOLD DMGG WIND THREAT AND PERHAPS A MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

   LAT...LON   35978744 37358677 37948603 37908507 37448478 36858491
               35818597 35608717 35978744 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2014
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