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Mesoscale Discussion 479
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS / NRN AND CNTRL AL / SRN MIDDLE TN /
   EXTREME NWRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 292027Z - 292100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NERN MS AND MOVE
   DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   STORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.  A
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
   NERN MS SWWD INTO CNTRL MS ALONG A NARROW PLUME OF GREATER
   INSTABILITY ALONG A COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT.  THE AIRMASS OVER CNTRL
   AND NRN AL IS BECOMING MORE BUOYANT BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
   OVERTURNING OF THIS AIRMASS FROM THE MORNING MCS OVER THE NERN GULF
   HAS TEMPERED THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION.  THE 18Z BMX RAOB
   EXHIBITED POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /BELOW 5 DEG C PER KM/ AND
   LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE EMANATING FROM THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE
   MCS.  THIS CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST SEVERE
   THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS...STRONG MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. 
   RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL SUITE MOVES DEVELOPING STORMS IN MS
   INTO CNTRL AND NRN AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  AN
   INCREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY
   MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33888901 35358720 35448593 35008529 34418564 33448676
               32128778 31828820 32088848 33588832 33888901 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2014
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