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Mesoscale Discussion 488
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0415 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SERN AL...AND SWRN INTO
   CNTRL GA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 120...

   VALID 300915Z - 301115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 120 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS BEING LOCALLY EXTENDED EASTWARD
   INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH A
   CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ANOTHER
   COUPLE OF HOURS.  AN ADDITIONAL WW DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY TO BE NEEDED
   AT THIS POINT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES AND HAS
   GENERALLY BEEN MAINTAINING STRENGTH THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  MOST
   INTENSE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSED TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST OF A
   CONVECTIVELY GENERATED LOWER/MID-LEVEL VORTEX...NOW NORTHWEST OF
   BAINBRIDGE GA...WHILE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALSO PERSISTS
   ALONG THE STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
   WEST...NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

   SEVERE WIND GUST/TORNADO THREAT IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
   PROGRESSIVE /WITH AN AVERAGE EAST NORTHEAST SPEED OF 20-25 KTS/
   PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEAR/NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF
   TALLAHASSEE INTO AREAS EAST OF BAINBRIDGE.  BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS IN
   THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING INTO/ABOVE A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER...AND NEAR SURFACE INFLOW OF THIS AIR COULD BEGIN
   WEAKENING CONVECTION.

   FURTHERMORE...STRONGER MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
   TO BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD...AWAY FROM EASTERN GULF
   COASTAL AREAS...THROUGH DAYBREAK AND BEYOND.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE
   RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW ALONG COASTAL AREAS
   WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...PERHAPS CONTRIBUTING TO GENERALLY WEAKENING
   TRENDS TO MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
   REGION AS EARLY AS 12-14Z.

   ..KERR.. 04/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30248779 30718713 30698622 30708531 30728488 31418470
               31878480 32108493 32638383 32048257 30968286 30208341
               29768410 29698536 29718736 29358873 30248779 

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Page last modified: April 30, 2014
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