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Mesoscale Discussion 492
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0492
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA...ERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301633Z - 301800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE VA AND
   ERN NC THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING TORNADOES BUT THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD REMAIN
   ISOLATED. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN SC...ERN NC INTO SE VA WHERE SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F AND LOWER 70S F. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   SHOWS MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE CORRIDOR. IN
   ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT WAKEFIELD VA SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND
   30 KT WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 1 KM AGL. THIS
   SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR
   TWO WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY ALSO
   OCCUR ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   STEEPEN.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   36647586 37337634 37637668 37687707 37417764 36847831
               35717899 34797898 34507874 34457819 34707749 35137640
               35737592 36647586 

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Page last modified: April 30, 2014
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