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Mesoscale Discussion 493
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 301816Z - 302015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG AND PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.  LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH HAIL CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS
   INCREASING ALONG A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN FL...WITH
   THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM SERN DUVAL COUNTY TO CENTRAL LEVY
   COUNTY AT 18Z.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG NNE-SSW
   ORIENTED BOUNDARIES FROM NORTH CENTRAL FL PENINSULA TO MAINLY INLAND
   PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL.  WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS
   THE FL PENINSULA AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT WILL TEND
   TO LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...AND THUS
   TEMPER THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH TSTMS
   THAT FORM OVER NRN FL WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT AND
   MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST MULTICELL STORM MODE WILL PREVAIL...
   WITH STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONGER WIND GUSTS.  HOWEVER...WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND
   TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS AND THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
   STRONGER STORMS.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29118290 29568228 30218159 30408125 29468090 28868113
               28498143 28148184 28258231 28438261 28908274 29118290 

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Page last modified: April 30, 2014
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