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Mesoscale Discussion 496
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0496
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0857 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 010157Z - 010400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
   EVENING...WITH ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE OF ANY STRONG WIND GUSTS OR
   BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES. A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME INCREASE IN
   THETA-E IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER STORMS ACROSS ERN NC. WITH WEAK
   INSTABILITY REMAINING...AND SOME INFLUENCE FROM LOWER AMPLITUDE
   FEATURES ALOFT...A LINE OF STORMS HAS FORMED ACROSS FAR ERN NC.
   WHILE LOW-TOPPED...AND LACKING APPRECIABLE UPDRAFT VELOCITY FOR A
   SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT...HODOGRAPHS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION
   AND INDEED WEAK VELOCITY COUPLETS ARE NOTED WITH MANY THESE STORMS.

   WITH TIME...WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE PRIMARY
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...A BRIEF
   AND LIKELY WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND/OR LOCALIZED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER MESOCYCLONES.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34277764 35467706 36517629 36597573 35517527 35157550
               34507649 34587689 34277764 

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Page last modified: May 01, 2014
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