Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 497
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 497 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0441 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 042141Z - 042345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOCALIZED WITH A DISCRETE
   STORM NEAR GREAT FALLS.

   DISCUSSION...A LONE SUPERCELL HAS HAD A HISTORY OF HAIL REPORTED UP
   TO GOLF-BALL SIZE. THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE TRACKING JUST N OF A
   WNW/ESE-ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM NEAR GTF TO LWT. MODIFIED RAP
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE IS LIKELY NEAR 500 J/KG WITHIN A
   POCKET OF LOWER 40S SURFACE DEW POINTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP
   TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS
   COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KT PER GREAT FALLS VWP DATA
   CLEARLY SUPPORTED DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE. RELATIVELY
   COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD YIELD SEVERE HAIL AS THE MAIN
   RISK...BUT DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL
   /REF 46 KT AT GTF 2132Z METAR/. THESE RISKS SHOULD BECOME
   INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH ERN EXTENT...OWING TO MORE PREVALENT
   DOWNSTREAM CLOUD COVERAGE THAT HAS LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AND
   DESTABILIZATION.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 05/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   47621188 47851143 47961070 47940978 47720900 47260849
               46810830 46660849 46660891 46880972 47351149 47621188 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 04, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities