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Mesoscale Discussion 498 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...FAR N-CNTRL NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 051901Z - 052000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN VA INTO FAR N-CNTRL NC. BOTH
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT APPEAR INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A WW.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS OF SWRN VA THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCEMENT OF FORCING FOR ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED WITH SFC OBS GENERALLY
SHOWING NEAR 50 F SFC DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING HAS
OCCURRED S OF A NWD MOVING BOUNDARY BENEATH LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
C/KM...AND IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RELATIVELY WEAK /PER VWP DATA/...BUT
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT...AND COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED STRONG-SVR WIND GUST THREAT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT
WILL BE NON-ZERO OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND FAIRLY STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR.
..ROGERS/HART.. 05/05/2014
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 36227901 36598032 36908092 37168098 37298058 37348008
37207947 36977897 36507862 36227901
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