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Mesoscale Discussion 502
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0502
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0929 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN WY / NWRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 060229Z - 060330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS WILL POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL.  ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THE EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT WILL
   LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND 9 KM CAPPI RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A FEW
   INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WY/MT/SD BORDER.  COUPLED DEEP
   ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG
   THE CANADIAN-U.S. BORDER AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
   /PER 10 KT STRENGTHENING IN H85 FLOW AT KUDX/ OVER THE PAST FEW
   HOURS WILL PROBABLY FOSTER SUSTENANCE --IF NOT AN INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY/COVERAGE-- IN THE EXISTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THE
   06/00Z RAP RAOB EXHIBITED VERY STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES /8.6 DEG C
   PER KM/ WITHIN A VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS.  AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS LIKELY FOR CLUSTER OF STORMS
   TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS POTENTIALLY
   CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   44120456 44760492 45460315 45310251 44820272 44250361
               44120456 

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Page last modified: May 06, 2014
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