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Mesoscale Discussion 503
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0503
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN UT...FAR SE ID..NRN/CNTRL WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 061948Z - 062145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
   BUT THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE TREAT AND LOW SEVERE COVERAGE ARE
   EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NRN UT NEWD
   INTO CNTRL WY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
   AN UPPER JET IMPINGES UPON THE AREA...INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT.
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE MEAGER BUT LAPSE RATES ARE STILL STEEP
   ENOUGH FOR SOME MODEST INSTABILITY. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE
   FROM 250-500 J/KG AND SBCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR IS
   SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH ANY PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS.
   ADDITIONALLY...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THE STRONG UPPER FLOW
   WILL FAVOR GUSTY /BUT NON-SEVERE/ WINDS WITH MOST OF THESE TSTMS. A
   FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AS WELL. MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
   THREAT AND ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW BUT THE TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 05/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...SLC...PIH...LKN...

   LAT...LON   40121422 41031412 42831300 44321155 44701011 45060730
               45230555 44960494 44360465 42980426 42540473 42190552
               42190591 42540697 42680815 42321018 40781131 39631233
               39341332 39401396 40121422 

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Page last modified: May 06, 2014
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