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Mesoscale Discussion 505
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0505
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0706 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN AND E-CNTRL WY / WRN NEB PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 070006Z - 070100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF MAINLY A MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL THREAT AND A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST MAY
   CONTINUE/DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
   STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS E-CNTRL CO THEN ARCING NWD ALONG THE FRONT
   RANGE AND EXTENDING INTO CNTRL WY.  ELY FLOW TO THE N OF THE FRONT
   HAS ADVECTED MID-UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION BENEATH STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/ ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS.  STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES AND SWLY 30 KT H5
   FLOW AT KCYS 88D-VWP WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION.  IN ADDITION TO THE STORM NEAR KCYS...A FEW OTHER
   STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE AGITATED CU FIELD OVER SERN WY.  ONE OR
   TWO OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT
   AND AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND
   GUST BEFORE THE ACTIVITY WANES BY MID-EVENING.

   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   41180499 43420630 43290454 41750324 41030401 41180499 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2014
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