Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 528
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 528 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0556 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...AND WRN/CENTRAL IA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 130...

   VALID 082256Z - 090030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 130 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SRN
   MN INVOF THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MORE
   CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SEVERE HAZARD.  FARTHER S ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL
   IA...A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES
   SUGGEST A MORE LIMITED THREAT AT THIS TIME...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS A GREATER THREAT.  MEANWHILE...COUNTIES CAN BE CLEARED FROM
   THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

   DISCUSSION...LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED
   THE LOW HAS MOVED INTO SWRN MN...WHILE THE EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT
   SHIFTS NWD ACROSS SRN MN.  THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN MN
   APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE MORE NWD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN TOWARD
   MKT AND ACROSS FAR NRN WASECA COUNTY.  ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND IN THE WAKE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT
   HAS NOW MOVED NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO NWRN WI IS BOOSTING
   DESTABILIZATION.  THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSES IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN MN WITH SFC-1 KM SHEAR RANGING FROM
   25-35 KT.  STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...INTERACT...AND/OR
   REMAIN INVOF THE WARM FRONT WILL POSE THE GREATEST SUSTAINABILITY
   FOR A TORNADO THREAT.  

   A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE SWRN MN LOW HAS MOVED EWD INTO
   FAR WRN IA WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
   WIND SHIFT AND PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED NNEWD
   FROM FAR NWRN MO TO WEBSTER COUNTY IA.  MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS
   THE WARM SECTOR AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT SUPPORTS
   ORGANIZED STORMS...AND A PRIMARY THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH IN
   IA...WEAKER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL IS LESS THAN
   LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

   ..PETERS.. 05/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40839542 41759538 42659574 44039607 44729638 45169635
               45209514 45349510 45319424 45379286 44769278 44469221
               44159258 43699300 42049290 41139323 40659355 40589504
               40839542 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 09, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities