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Mesoscale Discussion 530 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0530
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN/NWRN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 131...
VALID 090048Z - 090215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 131
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCATED IN VICINITY...AND JUST NORTH...OF THE
SLOW POLEWARD MOVING WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN INTO S-CENTRAL MN AND
WEST CENTRAL-NWRN WI. WEAKER INSTABILITY WELL NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT INTO W-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL MN FROM STEVENS COUNTY TO NRN CASS
COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS WRN
PORTIONS OF WW 131. EVENTUAL DECREASE IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AFTER SUNSET SUGGESTS A NEW WW MAY NOT BE WARRANTED...BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NNEWD THROUGH ERN
SD/WRN MN. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA INVOF THE
POLEWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND WEST
CENTRAL WI SHOULD AID IN FURTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING NEAR
AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE WARM
FRONT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR
SUSTAINED STRONGER STORMS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL. GIVEN
THE NEWD TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT
FALLS...THE MIDDLE AND ERN PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS FORMING NEAR
THE WARM FRONT AND PRIOR TO THEIR WEAKENING WELL NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.
..PETERS.. 05/09/2014
ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 45769501 45919496 46229482 46879465 46979401 46819322
46769283 46689242 46599211 46729177 46999068 46159078
44629038 44419049 43979074 43839171 43969224 44149256
44419237 44799279 45339281 45249448 45479489 45769501
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