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Mesoscale Discussion 541
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0541
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0434 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092134Z - 092330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
   EVENING HOURS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
   WATCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE 22Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME.

   DISCUSSION...SVR TSTMS OVER MCMULLEN COUNTY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/MOVE
   SEWD INTO AN UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE /MLCAPE
   2000 - 2500 J/KG/. THIS STORM COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH
   A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SEWD TO
   THE COAST. INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY AS AN EWD-MOVING UPPER
   LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS S TX. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   /AVERAGING 40 KTS/ EXISTS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ORGANIZED
   STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...
   INTENSE TSTMS OVER THE COAHUILA REGION OF MEXICO MAY MOVE INTO THE
   DISCUSSION AREA AFTER 2230Z AND ALSO RESULT IN A SVR THREAT.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE
   PRIOR IN THE 22Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME.

   ..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 05/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27969993 28299924 28649823 28669775 28669759 28589736
               28289724 27899717 27409731 27049752 26769786 26769824
               26879879 26999933 27569947 27969993 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2014
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