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Mesoscale Discussion 547
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0547
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...KY...SWRN OH...FAR WRN WV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101744Z - 101945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH SOME
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED. SOME STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR STORMS
   CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SVR
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT WV IMAGERY PLACES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER IL
   WITH INCREASED LIFT DOWNSTREAM LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING
   TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN OH VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED
   TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS A MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
   SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM S-CNTRL IL NEWD INTO NW
   PA. 

   MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SVR
   COVERAGE WITH A PRIMARILY MUTLICELL MODE FAVORED. A FEW STRONG TO
   BRIEFLY SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CELL
   MERGERS...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED
   FOR A WW. HOWEVER...TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   INCREASED STORM ORGANIZATION WHICH MAY END UP INCREASING THE NEED
   FOR A WW.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...
   MEG...

   LAT...LON   38548789 39188672 39828305 39308199 38218180 37388261
               36948396 36678649 36398902 38548789 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2014
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