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Mesoscale Discussion 549
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0549
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0123 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...WRN MA...WRN CT...NJ...ERN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101823Z - 102030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH TSTM ACTIVITY
   FROM SRN NJ NNEWD INTO WRN CT/WRN MA. SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
   LOW AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...HEATING ALONG A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS INCREASED
   TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FROM SRN NY SWD TOWARDS
   THE DELMARVA. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY WEAK BUT LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7 TO 8 DEG C PER KM AMIDST A FAIRLY
   MOIST ENVIRONMENT ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.
   RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. 

   MEAN FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA IS A BIT STRONGER THAN AREAS FARTHER SW
   WITH OKX AND DOX VAD PROFILES OBSERVING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 39 KT
   AND 38 KT...RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONALLY...0-6 KM MEAN WIND ON THESE
   VADS IS AROUND 30-35 KT. THIS TYPE OF FLOW MAY SUPPORT LOOSELY
   ORGANIZED STORMS WILL A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. SOME SMALL
   HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

   TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED BUT ANTICIPATED LOW SVR
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39737413 39327455 39187494 39257537 39487609 39967637
               40407630 41377600 41797576 42307525 42947372 42647292
               41227283 39737413 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2014
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