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Mesoscale Discussion 551 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0551
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN MO...FAR WRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 102156Z - 102300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WATCH ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED BY 23Z OVER NRN AND CNTRL MO AS
SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AT
22Z ACROSS NWRN MO...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL
SIZE HAVING BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE SUPPORTING SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...WITH A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
ERN EDGE OF WW 137. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES THROUGH THE EVENING AS SOMEWHAT BETTER
MOISTURE RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF A NWD MOVING WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED NEAR A LINE FROM CDJ-COU-SUS. LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A SIGNIFICANT THREAT...WHILE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING
SEGMENTS DUE TO CELL MERGERS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
OVERALL TORNADO THREAT.
..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 05/10/2014
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38349338 38509382 38799395 39209394 39859360 40289347
40549331 40449285 39879170 39579106 39259038 38738986
38198987 37939006 37779068 37769135 37859199 38349338
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