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Mesoscale Discussion 552
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0552
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN SD/WEST CENTRAL-SWRN MN/NWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 102207Z - 102330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL INTO
   NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL IA THROUGH SWRN AND WEST-CENTRAL MN TO FAR NERN
   SD INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING HAIL...LOCALLY APPROACHING...AND/OR EXCEEDING...A DIAMETER
   OF 1 INCH AND SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.  COVERAGE OF STRONGER TO
   SEVERE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW
   PRESSURE LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND /SE OF BIS/ WITH A DRY LINE
   EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH FAR NERN SD...THEN SSEWD THROUGH FAR SWRN MN
   TO FAR WRN IA.  A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
   50S EXTENDED NNWWD JUST EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MID-UPPER 50S IN
   WEST CENTRAL-SWRN IA.  MODEST MOISTURE CONTENT...MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS RESULTING IN
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J PER KG/.  

   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING N/NEWD
   ACROSS THE SURFACE LOW AND DRY LINE.  ASCENT WITH THESE FEATURES
   COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE MOISTURE CORRIDOR HAS BEEN
   SUPPORTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED STORMS IS BEST ACROSS IA...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS
   THIS DISCUSSION AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRONGER
   TO SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
   HRRR /15-19Z/ SUGGESTED THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE
   BOUNDARY AND MOVING EAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
   /TENDING TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES/ AND NORTH-CENTRAL IA.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 05/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45609752 45939692 45949558 45349427 44529377 43599337
               42769349 41969391 41749467 41789562 42489567 43749613
               44679652 45389714 45609752 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2014
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