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Mesoscale Discussion 560
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0560
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0916 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...IOWA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NRN MO...NWRN
   IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140...

   VALID 111416Z - 111545Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 140 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
   AT 15Z...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM.

   DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
   MID MISSOURI VALLEY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE CREST OF LARGER
   SCALE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BETWEEN NOW
   AND 16-18Z.  AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA THROUGH
   THE MIDDAY HOURS...GENERALLY AWAY FROM STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
   FOCUSED ALONG A REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR THE
   UPPER FORCING TO ADVANCE INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE
   ENVIRONMENT WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...THUNDERSTORM INTENSITIES SEEM LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
   DIMINISH AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

   ..KERR.. 05/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41889577 43319549 42919151 41689021 40239156 40539426
               41889577 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2014
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