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Mesoscale Discussion 561
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0561
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1047 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IOWA/NRN MISSOURI INTO NWRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 111547Z - 111745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING THE SUSTENANCE OF ONGOING
   STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
   WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LOW THROUGH MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS ARE
   INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FORCING FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IS UNCLEAR.  HOWEVER...SUSTAINED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT HAS PERSISTED IN A SMALL CLUSTER NOW SPREADING
   NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE LAMONI IA AREA...WHERE A MODEST 2 HOUR SURFACE
   PRESSURE FALL WAS NOTED IN 15Z SURFACE DATA.  

   THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTS INHIBITION FOR
   MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS AHEAD OF ACTIVITY...ACROSS
   NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. 
   AND...WITH THE GENERATION OF A DEEPENING SURFACE BASED COLD
   POOL...STRONGER CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO ROOT WITHIN THE
   DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE...PERHAPS AS
   EARLY AS THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME.  IF THIS OCCURS...FAVORABLY SHEARED
   30-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS COULD CONTRIBUTE
   TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY
   THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 05/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41039436 41559329 41849247 41899142 41389104 40519093
               40119140 40089311 40369471 41039436 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2014
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