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Mesoscale Discussion 562
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0562
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NE KS...S-CNTRL/SE NEB...FAR SW IA...FAR NW
   MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 111749Z - 111945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SUPERCELL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO FROM N-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO FAR SW IA. ALL FACETS OF SVR
   WX ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 65
   KT...HAIL LARGER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND TORNADOES...A FEW
   OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. AS A RESULT...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
   NEEDED BY 20Z OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY
   AGITATED AND BUOYANT CU FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO
   INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
   TO UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   FROM JUST N OF RSL ENEWD TOWARDS STJ HAVE INCREASE TO ABOVE 80 DEG
   F. 

   MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z TOP SOUNDING WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS YIELDS
   AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE GREATER THAN 2500 J PER KG.
   HOWEVER...SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING IS LIKELY ONGOING WITH SOME
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. CONTINUED HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
   ERODE THIS INHIBITION WITH RESULTANT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. 

   TWX AND EAX VAD PROFILERS SHOW VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH TWX
   RECENTLY MEASURING 219 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. CONTINUED NWD PROGRESS
   OF THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED...WITH STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM N-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO FAR SW IA.
   BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS
   A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. 

   THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL READILY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
   LARGE HAIL /GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER/...STRONG WINDS...AND
   TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. AS SUCH...A TORNADO
   WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 20Z.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   40089911 40669831 41589570 41319473 40599424 40259418
               39539448 38869685 38939864 40089911 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2014
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