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Mesoscale Discussion 563
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0563
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA INTO SRN WI AND NRN IL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 141...

   VALID 111751Z - 111845Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 141 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...CONTINUES. 
   SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHERE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WATCH EAST/NORTHEAST OF WW 141.

   DISCUSSION...A ZONE OF SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING
   ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR...CURVING FROM NEAR
   LAMONI IA NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...EAST THROUGH
   NORTHEAST OF WATERLOO...IS BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...INSOLATION AND
   THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE /UP TO 1000 TO 2000 J PER KG/ ALONG THE
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION AND UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH THROUGH 19-21Z...AS A
   CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED MID/UPPER JET STREAK /AROUND 50
   KT AT 500 MB/ NOSES NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL IOWA.

   ..KERR.. 05/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40739331 41569235 42129147 42329127 42889108 42458990
               41798968 40839079 40459239 40739331 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2014
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