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Mesoscale Discussion 565 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 141...
VALID 111936Z - 112100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 141 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL MAY CONTINUE TO POSE THE RISK FOR
SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO AS IT
DEVELOPS EAST OF OTTUMWA TOWARD THE DAVENPORT AREA THROUGH 21-22Z.
DISCUSSION...MOST INTENSE CURRENT STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF AN EASTWARD MIGRATING CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR
ENHANCED CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER EASTERN IOWA. THIS IS OCCURRING JUST
TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE NORTHEASTERLY NEAR
SURFACE FLOW IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF MORE STRONG CAPPING EASTWARD ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
AIR. LITTLE IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS TO
SUGGEST SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION SUPPORTIVE OF
INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AS STORMS DEVELOP EAST OF OTTUMWA THROUGH 21-22Z. BUT
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO OFFER THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR ANY TORNADO
THREAT. NEW STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER...ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAPPING /AS SUGGESTED BY THE 700 MB
THERMAL FIELDS/...BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR AS CONDUCIVE
TO TORNADIC POTENTIAL.
..KERR.. 05/11/2014
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 41309274 41689219 41749149 41639063 41049068 40799143
40909263 41309274
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