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Mesoscale Discussion 565
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0565
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 141...

   VALID 111936Z - 112100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 141 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL MAY CONTINUE TO POSE THE RISK FOR
   SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO AS IT
   DEVELOPS EAST OF OTTUMWA TOWARD THE DAVENPORT AREA THROUGH 21-22Z.

   DISCUSSION...MOST INTENSE CURRENT STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TO THE
   SOUTHWEST OF AN EASTWARD MIGRATING CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR
   ENHANCED CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER EASTERN IOWA.  THIS IS OCCURRING JUST
   TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE NORTHEASTERLY NEAR
   SURFACE FLOW IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND ON THE LEADING
   EDGE OF MORE STRONG CAPPING EASTWARD ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
   AIR.  LITTLE IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS TO
   SUGGEST SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION SUPPORTIVE OF
   INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...AS STORMS DEVELOP EAST OF OTTUMWA THROUGH 21-22Z.  BUT
   THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO OFFER THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR ANY TORNADO
   THREAT.  NEW STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER...ON THE
   LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAPPING /AS SUGGESTED BY THE 700 MB
   THERMAL FIELDS/...BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR AS CONDUCIVE
   TO TORNADIC POTENTIAL.

   ..KERR.. 05/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

   LAT...LON   41309274 41689219 41749149 41639063 41049068 40799143
               40909263 41309274 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2014
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