MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE KS...FAR SW MO...ERN OK...NCNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 121652Z - 121815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
   THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS CELLS INTENSIFY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   COLD POOL ORGANIZATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
   SWD FROM ERN KS ACROSS ECNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX. SFC DEWPOINTS
   SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F WITH
   MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. AS SFC HEATING
   CONTINUES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY
   INTENSIFY. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOWED 25 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
   WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. AS LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES STEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
   MAY DEVELOP WITH LINE SEGMENTS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. HAIL WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   36019434 33669579 32639666 31789729 31459752 31289815
               31259860 31399904 31789909 32079900 32549864 33549804
               35319684 36959574 37329544 37409483 36939409 36019434