ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 121652 
SPC MCD 121652 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-121815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE KS...FAR SW MO...ERN OK...NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 121652Z - 121815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS CELLS INTENSIFY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
COLD POOL ORGANIZATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWD FROM ERN KS ACROSS ECNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX. SFC DEWPOINTS
SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F WITH
MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. AS SFC HEATING
CONTINUES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOWED 25 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. AS LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
MAY DEVELOP WITH LINE SEGMENTS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/12/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   36019434 33669579 32639666 31789729 31459752 31289815
            31259860 31399904 31789909 32079900 32549864 33549804
            35319684 36959574 37329544 37409483 36939409 36019434 

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