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Mesoscale Discussion 581 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...SE IA....NW IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 121654Z - 121900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. A
TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...12Z DVN AND ILX SOUNDINGS SAMPLED A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN MIXING RATIOS GREATER THAN 13.5 G/KG.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. CINH
INHIBITION WILL QUICKLY ERODE WITH MODEST HEATING AND TSTM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT HOUR.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES OVER AREA. PRIMARY COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SWD THROUGH W-CNTRL IA AND INTO FAR NW MO. MESO-LOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY RESULTANT FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS
ANALYZED OVER DSM WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD INTO FAR NW
IL AND CONNECTING TO ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SRN WI. ANOTHER
OUTFLOW APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM N-CNTRL MO /JUST N OF CDJ/ NEWD
TOWARDS MLI IN FAR NWRN IL. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL AS AREAS FOR UPDRAFT
ENHANCEMENT DURING INTERACTION WITH ONGOING STORMS.
THE AREA IS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE BETTER SHEAR BUT AT LEAST
MODERATE INSTABILITY AS WELL AS INTERACTIONS WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS HIGH
BUT COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NUMEROUS SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...AND DECENT MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR
TWO.
..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/12/2014
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40689461 41539423 42359228 42429047 42158914 41768884
40818921 39929050 39049405 40689461
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