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Mesoscale Discussion 581
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...SE IA....NW IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 121654Z - 121900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
   A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. A
   TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...12Z DVN AND ILX SOUNDINGS SAMPLED A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN MIXING RATIOS GREATER THAN 13.5 G/KG.
   DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. CINH
   INHIBITION WILL QUICKLY ERODE WITH MODEST HEATING AND TSTM ACTIVITY
   IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT HOUR. 

   SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES OVER AREA. PRIMARY COLD
   FRONT EXTENDS SWD THROUGH W-CNTRL IA AND INTO FAR NW MO. MESO-LOW
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY RESULTANT FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS
   ANALYZED OVER DSM WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD INTO FAR NW
   IL AND CONNECTING TO ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SRN WI. ANOTHER
   OUTFLOW APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM N-CNTRL MO /JUST N OF CDJ/ NEWD
   TOWARDS MLI IN FAR NWRN IL. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
   IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL AS AREAS FOR UPDRAFT
   ENHANCEMENT DURING INTERACTION WITH ONGOING STORMS. 

   THE AREA IS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE BETTER SHEAR BUT AT LEAST
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AS WELL AS INTERACTIONS WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES
   SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS HIGH
   BUT COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NUMEROUS SURFACE
   BOUNDARIES...AND DECENT MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR
   TWO.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40689461 41539423 42359228 42429047 42158914 41768884
               40818921 39929050 39049405 40689461 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2014
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