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Mesoscale Discussion 585
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SW TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 121938Z - 122115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   PARTS OF SCNTRL AND SW TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.
   WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE MCD AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR
   BRADY TX EXTENDING SWWD TO NEAR DEL RIO TX. SOUTHEAST OF THE
   BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND MLCAPE VALUES
   ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...SFC
   WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT SAN ANTONIO WITH SOME
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS. THE STRONG
   INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. CELLS THAT
   INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF THE STORMS CAN DEVELOP A COLD
   POOL...THEN A WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30139807 31009847 31159891 30959961 30510017 30030068
               29720088 29340087 28860049 28240020 27799983 27709927
               27979867 28449828 29349807 30139807 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2014
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