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Mesoscale Discussion 589
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 122308Z - 130045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
   INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY WELL-ORGANIZED...THE SEVERE THREAT IS HIGH
   ENOUGH MAKE WW ISSUANCE POSSIBLE BY 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...A BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT IN TEXAS...WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER THE TX HILL
   COUNTRY WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH
   MLCAPE IN THE 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS. MARGINAL
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL STORMS WITH
   TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OCCASIONALLY NOTED.
   NEVERTHELESS...INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. 

   THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED BY MOIST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW THIS
   EVENING...WITH THE LINE POSSIBLY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE E-W LATER
   THIS EVENING. IT NOT CLEAR THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE OF A
   SUFFICIENT MAGNITUDE/DURATION TO REQUIRE WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT THE
   AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
   SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH THESE SLOW-MOVING STORMS...REFER TO MPD 48
   FROM WPC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

   ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 05/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29600032 30180024 30589996 31069924 31179904 31389862
               31509834 31559800 31539776 31479759 31389753 31279750
               31159751 31039756 30859767 30619789 30499811 30369834
               30239872 30019919 29600032 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2014
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