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Mesoscale Discussion 592
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0730 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 130030Z - 130130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2
   HRS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IT IS NOT
   CLEAR IF COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL WARRANT WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NERN OH
   AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING SEWD OUT OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...THOUGH SOME DECREASE IS LIKELY LATER
   THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED NORTHEAST OF A TOL-MFD-ZZV
   LINE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE
   HAIL WITH ANY CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. HOWEVER...STORM MODE
   MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR AS CONVECTION REVELOPS OVER A
   LAKE-ENHANCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING SOUTH OF CLEVELAND. IT IS
   NOT CLEAR IF THE DURATION OF THE THREAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WATCH
   ISSUANCE...THOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 05/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41468286 41528244 41598206 41588158 41498114 41308089
               41088080 40868077 40448078 40298094 40388117 40488161
               40598192 40778223 40828252 40988289 41168303 41288307
               41468286 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2014
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