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Mesoscale Discussion 593
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0593
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0919 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 130219Z - 130315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL EXIST TONIGHT
   WITH STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. AT THIS TIME...IT IS
   UNCERTAIN IF THE SEVERE THREAT IS SUFFICIENT FOR WW
   ISSUANCE...THOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...THE SWRN EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE FRONTAL QLCS IS
   APPROACHING THE UVA/HDO AREAS AS OF 02Z...WHILE FURTHER
   SOUTH...OTHER STORMS ARE EMERGING SLOWLY NEWD OUT OF MEXICO NEAR
   LRD. A VERY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG NOTED PER RECENT
   MESOANALYSIS. RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN ONLY
   MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
   SEVERE THREAT OVERALL. 

   CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS BEING UNDERCUT...THOUGH ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. FURTHER
   SOUTH NEAR LAREDO...CELL MERGERS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   A SMALL MCS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THIS AREA IS RESULTING IN
   SLIGHTLY ENHANCED EFFECTIVE HELICITY OF 100-150 M2/S2...WHICH GIVEN
   THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES WITH A CORRESPONDING THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AT
   THIS TIME...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED IN THIS AREA.

   ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 05/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26399898 26869936 27399969 27840019 28340043 28790058
               29200069 29460067 29650033 29789989 29819949 29839921
               29839901 29719886 29419876 29119870 28859870 28669873
               28529870 28269868 28089865 27849852 27609833 27359818
               27119807 26819800 26659800 26469801 26309806 26249807
               26129813 26109821 26179839 26269859 26399898 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2014
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