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Mesoscale Discussion 596
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN INDIANA AND ADJACENT NWRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 132000Z - 132200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT.  ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
   STRONGEST CELLS.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN INDIANA ATTM...WITH A SECOND ARCING OUTFLOW
   CROSSING NWRN OH.  THESE TWO BOUNDARIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST
   ACTIVE CLUSTERS OF STORMS RIGHT NOW -- ONE CROSSING SERN LOWER MI
   AND THE OTHER ADVANCING ACROSS ERN INDIANA TOWARD WRN OH.  THE MOST
   VIGOROUS ACTIVITY S OF THE LOWER MI CONVECTIVE CLUSTER /WHICH HAS
   STARTED SHIFTING INTO ONTARIO/ IS ONGOING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
   THESE TWO BOUNDARIES /INVOF ADAMS AND JAY COUNTIES IN INDIANA AND
   ADJACENT VAN WERT...PAULDING...AND MERCER COUNTIES IN OH/ -- WHERE
   LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
   HOUR.

   THAT SAID...STORMS OVERALL HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED LARGELY
   DISORGANIZED...REDEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS AS COOL AIR REPEATEDLY
   UNDERCUTS ONGOING STORMS LEADING TO SUCCESSIVE NEW UPDRAFT
   DEVELOPMENT FARTHER E.  EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DUE TO
   DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   41668256 40618291 39708482 40038524 41148499 41718414
               41668256 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2014
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