Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 597
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 597 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0597
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1037 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN OH/WRN WV/CENTRAL AND ERN KY/NRN
   MIDDLE TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 141537Z - 141630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH WW ISSUANCE LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY
   CONDITIONS FROM ERN TN NWD INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY...E OF A
   BAND OF THICKER CLOUDS COVERING THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS
   ATTM.  IN THIS RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AREA...DIURNAL HEATING IS
   UNDERWAY...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW RISING THROUGH THE 70S AREA-WIDE. 
   THIS HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS IS YIELDING
   GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE NOW IN EXCESS OF
   1000 J/KG.

   ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
   WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODEL-FORECAST INCREASE IN LOW- TO
   MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA.  AS THE ENVIRONMENT THUS BECOMES
   INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE RISK...EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE
   IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY -- WITH A MIX OF POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
   BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND ROTATING CELLS.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   LIKELY...ALONG WITH SOME RISK FOR TORNADOES AS THE FLOW FIELD
   STRENGTHENS.  LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH NWD
   EXTENT ACROSS KY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WHERE GREATER
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INDICATED.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   36778378 36138529 36708622 37768558 39738379 41098255
               41138129 40608054 38518147 36778378 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 14, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities