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Mesoscale Discussion 602
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0450 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY / WRN PA / WV

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 155...

   VALID 142150Z - 142315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 155 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN
   NY...WRN PA AND WV. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
   EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010 MB LOW OVER WRN KY
   WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN OH INTO NW PA. SFC
   DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS TROUGH ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND MLCAPE
   IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE ONGOING ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS
   THE ERN PART OF WW 155. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY MOVE OUT OF THE NERN
   PART OF THE WATCH WITH OTHER NEW CELLS INITIATING ALONG THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS AND MOVING NNEWD. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND
   MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE PITTSBURG PA WSR-88D
   VWP...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WRN PA AND WRN NY DUE TO A DAMMING COLD
   FRONTAL AIRMASS SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN CREST.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 05/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42677966 41788129 40678207 39698215 38998212 38578138
               38378032 38727970 39377923 40527892 41607840 42557779
               42977779 43157820 43147879 42677966 

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Page last modified: May 14, 2014
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