ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 151922 
SPC MCD 151922 
NCZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-PAZ000-152015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN NC...CENTRAL/ERN
VA...CENTRAL MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157...

VALID 151922Z - 152015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR
TWO CONTINUES WITHIN THE WW AREA.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED OCNL QLCS
STRUCTURES...AND A TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION...EXTENDED FROM
SHENANDOAH COUNTY VA SWD TO MECKLENBURG COUNTY ALONG THE VA/NC
BORDER AT 1915Z. TO THE SOUTH...NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD AND WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER TSTMS...ALTHOUGH OCNL
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SINCE 1730Z.

OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD ERN U.S. TROUGH. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE
RATES...DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN AN AXIS OF MLCAPES OF 500 TO
LOCALLY 1000 J/KG FROM CENTRAL MD SWD TO THE NC COAST.  IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...A CONTINUED RISK FOR EMBEDDED QLCS
BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF WW
157.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 05/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   39707828 39697727 39067695 36587732 36517689 34927636
            34517662 34077756 33687811 33907863 34537931 34817955
            39727886 39707828 

NNNN