ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152133 
SPC MCD 152133 
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-152330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PA...CNTRL/ERN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 152133Z - 152330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS
INTO THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION OF SUCH ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION OVER THE NRN VA AND MD PIEDMONT WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING NNEWD WITHIN THE MERIDIONALLY EXTENSIVE WARM
CONVEYOR OVER THE ERN STATES EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY.
MOIST-NEUTRAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS
SUGGEST THAT NORMALIZED CONVECTIVE ACCELERATIONS WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80F AMIDST
LOWER-60S DEWPOINTS...MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL BE MAINTAINED WELL IN
ADVANCE OF AN EWD-MOVING FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER WRN PA. DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SAMPLED BY THE CCX VWP...WITH 50-60-KT MID-LEVEL
SLYS...MAY OFFER SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED...SMALL
BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WINDS. ALSO...LOW-LEVEL SRM
DATA FROM CCX WSR-88D ALSO INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONES WITH
CONVECTION EVOLVING IN S-CNTRL PA -- PERHAPS A MANIFESTATION OF THE
25-30-KT OF 0-1-KM SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE VWP. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

GIVEN SOME TENDENCY FOR DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INCREASE AS
THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX GLANCES THE
AREA THIS EVENING...CONVECTION COULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT EVEN STRONGER BUOYANCY/UPDRAFTS...THE COVERAGE OF
THE SVR RISK MAY BE LIMITED AND DECREASE WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
DIABATIC COOLING OF THE SFC LAYER.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 05/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39727578 38727577 38377623 38507682 39297689 39747761
            40207799 41707790 41977683 41717611 41157582 39727578 

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