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Mesoscale Discussion 612
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MD...ECNTRL VA...CNTRL AND ERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157...

   VALID 152224Z - 160000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A
   COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS WW 157. A BRIEF TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE MAY
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ROTATING STORMS. AS THE
   EXPIRATION OF WW 157 APPROACHES AT 00Z...A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE
   NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010 MB LOW OVER NRN SC
   WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN NC AND WRN VA. TO THE
   EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S F TO THE
   LOWER 70S F WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. IN
   ADDITION...THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT RALEIGH NC SHOWS 40 KT OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 35 KT. THIS SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 275 M2/S2
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION. A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE
   RULED OUT WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF AN
   EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN....OR FURTHER WEST WITH CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE
   RAIN. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING STORMS AND OR
   SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 05/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

   LAT...LON   33527802 33567824 34797965 35047947 35097955 35507977
               35527955 36227950 36227915 36537915 36547872 36657864
               36647856 36767858 37117841 37197863 37377858 37347849
               37667828 37807846 38167821 38207832 38277830 38257817
               38387811 38687831 38827832 38837835 39107830 39107838
               39057845 39137850 39197843 39317840 39527839 39557844
               39697832 39727720 39637727 39507709 39317715 39097686
               38957701 38917715 38877705 38687705 38637721 38397735
               38257734 38157718 38037711 37877719 37807728 37727730
               37647719 37637709 37547716 37527720 37477717 37397723
               37337728 37187739 37047742 36917755 36867762 36837751
               36757748 36677745 36587741 36547687 36427692 36367674
               36197667 35897667 35697683 35677655 35547645 35487648
               35467654 35297651 35067642 35017627 34937626 34707646
               34667647 34577657 34397627 34257641 34247664 34327684
               34277707 34117750 33837764 33647769 33537780 33527802 

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