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Mesoscale Discussion 613
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0555 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN SC AND FAR ERN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152255Z - 160100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED DMGG-WIND RISK MAY EXIST THROUGH THE
   EVENING...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY IMPLIES INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SPEED
   MAX GLANCING THE SERN ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. A MERIDIONALLY
   EXTENSIVE PLUME OF RICH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE PRECEDES THIS FEATURE.
   GPS PW DATA SUGGEST A RIBBON OF 1.75-2.00-INCH PW EXTENDING NWD FROM
   THE SWRN N ATLC INTO THE CAROLINAS...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S IN ADVANCE OF A N/S-ORIENTED COLD FRONT
   SEGMENT ADVANCING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE FACTORS MAY FOSTER A
   CONTINUED UPTICK IN CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH WATER
   LOADING BEING A PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS.
   HOWEVER...VWP DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL FLOW BEING CONSIDERABLY WEAKER
   THAN THAT ACROSS HIGHER LATITUDES -- I.E. ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT.
   CORRESPONDING WEAKER DEEP SHEAR WILL LIKELY IMPEDE CONVECTIVE
   ORGANIZATION TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE SVR-TSTM RISK. GIVEN THE
   LOW-LCL ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A
   BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THIN BUOYANCY
   PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS TO MINIMIZE SUCH
   POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL SFC-LAYER COOLING BECOMES
   ESTABLISHED.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 05/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

   LAT...LON   31758129 32228118 32948107 34188075 34728041 34717991
               33967886 33057936 32078067 31758129 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2014
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