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Mesoscale Discussion 618
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0844 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...NERN WY...WRN PORTIONS OF
   ND/SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 158...159...

   VALID 190144Z - 190245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   158...159...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER WW 159 AND VALID
   PORTIONS OF WW 158.

   DISCUSSION...SVR TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS SERN MT AT 0130Z WHILE TSTMS
   ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA HAVE GENLY WEAKENED SINCE 01Z.
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW OVER NERN WY WITH A
   MODESTLY MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SERN MT/NERN WY/WRN DAKS.
   THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN GRADUALLY
   INCREASING CINH WITH TIME...THOUGH THIS MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

   TSTM COMPLEX OVER ROSEBUD/POWDER RIVER COUNTIES IS MOVING THROUGH AN
   INSTABILITY AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE AVERAGING 750 J/KG AND
   GENERALLY ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   WITH A PRONOUNCED COLD POOL ESTABLISHED...THIS COMPLEX SHOULD
   CONTINUE MOVING EWD FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS WITH A THREAT
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE LATEST HIGH-RES RAPID REFRESH
   GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS TREND.

   ELSEWHERE...THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR TSTMS
   REMAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF BOTH WW AREAS IN
   PROXIMITY TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

   ..BUNTING/EDWARDS.. 05/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

   LAT...LON   45450715 47410678 48340508 48500351 48740264 48220230
               46420226 44720227 43510217 43050220 43030406 43510414
               43560610 44960603 45450715 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2014
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