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Mesoscale Discussion 621 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192209Z - 200015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG /PER
MODIFIED 21 UTC KRBL RAP SOUNDING/ AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AT OR
BELOW 20 KTS/. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MULTI-CELLS TIED TO...OR JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF...THE TERRAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM MODE.
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST...SMALL HAIL /BRIEFLY APPROACHING 1
INCH/ AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS /GENERALLY LESS THEN 60 MPH/ CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. THE BRIEF/ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY
SEVERE-CRITERIA EVENT SUGGESTS A WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
..MARSH/EDWARDS.. 05/19/2014
ATTN...WFO...STO...
LAT...LON 40322278 40462270 40592226 40232195 39822176 39302164
39022209 39372255 39972273 40322278
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