ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 211840 
SPC MCD 211840 
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL IL...NERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 211840Z - 212045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CU FIELD INCREASING WITHIN
THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL IL...AND EXTEND WWD ACROSS NRN
MO. MODIFYING THE 12Z ILX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS YIELDS
STRONG INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.

MEANWHILE...SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO GET STRONGER AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES NEWD ACROSS MO AND INTO IL. THIS WILL NOT ONLY LENGTHEN
HODOGRAPHS...BUT WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND HELP
INITIATION.

..JEWELL/HART.. 05/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   39098821 39288929 39489007 39589062 39739147 39949287
            40139305 40389293 40869074 40988958 40868853 40498754
            39858739 39078759 39098821 

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