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Mesoscale Discussion 644 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AND E-CNTRL CO...NWRN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...
VALID 212217Z - 212315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING FROM EL PASO EWD TO CHEYENNE
COUNTIES CO...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER OVER THE
NEXT HR OR SO WITH A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL AFFECTING ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES. A NEW DOWNSTREAM SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR A POTENTIAL DMGG WIND THREAT.
DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS SHOW A RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL IS
MAINTAINING QUASI-DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS WITH EWD PROGRESSION E OF
THE DEN METRO AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING SEWD OF THE PRIMARY STORM ALONG THE TRAILING COLD POOL.
FARTHER S...STORMS HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS E-CNTRL
CO...ORIENTED GENERALLY WITHIN A W-E FASHION. THIS BROKEN LINE
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE/CONSOLIDATE WITH THE SUPERCELL AND
TRANSITION PRIMARILY INTO A SVR WIND THREAT. MODERATELY MOIST ELY
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN A PROPAGATING CLUSTER OR LINE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING WW 165 AND 167. AS A RESULT...A NEW SVR TSTM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED SOON WITH AFFECTED FORECAST
OFFICES.
..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/21/2014
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 39110138 38680215 38400307 38360385 38800429 39470433
39870409 40120381 40170307 39910182 39580129 39110138
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